Where did all the children with SEN go?

This week the Department for Education (DfE) has released two batches of interesting data about special educational needs. These two sets of data reveal very significant changes in education, schools and, most dramatically, in special educational needs.

The figures are worrying. We set out the key pieces of data here and try to interpret them to consider what they actually mean.

Schools and education

The first release explored national pupil projections. This came out on 22 July and can be found here.

These projections look at how the size of school populations will change over the next five years. It also tries to predict where children will be educated.

The projections suggest that there will be a steady increase in the number of pupils over the next five years. In light of the Education and Adoption Bill, it is likely that these children will be educated in academies which are a part of large chains.

In the last ten years, the number of special schools has decreased by 10%. This is likely to be as a result of what is referred to as the ‘mainstream presumption’.

Both the Education Act and Children and Families Act 2014 require that children are educated in mainstream schools so far as possible. Schools are expected to make all possible adjustments to accommodate children with special educational needs. Children should only be placed in a special school if it can be established that mainstream is wholly insufficient and/or the child with special educational need would cause a significant, and negative, impact on the education of children already in the mainstream school.

Whilst the ‘mainstream presumption’ has continued into the Children and Families Act, the DfE predict that the number of special schools will increase by 30% in the next five years. It is notably against the background of the Ofsted finding that too many children have been ‘diagnosed’ as having special educational needs and disabilities.

Special educational needs and disability

A further important data release happened yesterday evening, 23 July, and overnight there has been significant social media traffic trying to digest the information released. That is because of the concerning numbers involved.

The data release looks at how the numbers of children with special educational needs have varied. It also details the changes in how those children are supported.

The data release page can be found here. The main text document makes for interesting reading. If you have time, it is also worth looking at the main data files. These will let you explore the changes that have taken place in your local authority and your region generally. These local numbers may help to explain any difficulties you may be facing in securing support for your child with special educational needs.

The headline statistics are:

• 15.4% of children are now recognised as having special educational needs and disabilities, requiring support. In 2014 17.9% of children had special educational needs. In real numbers, that means nearly a quarter of a million children ‘fell out’ of SEN provision in 2014/2015.

• The number of children recognised as having special educational needs and disabilities has been decreasing since 2010. Each year the drop has been around 1 percentage point. The drop this year has been 5 times as much as previous years.

• 2.8% of pupils nationally are supported by a Statement or Education, Health and Care Plan. This is the same as 2014. As the number of children recognised as having special educational needs has decreased, this must mean that children with special educational needs are now more likely to be supported by a Statement or Education, Health and Care Plan.

• Among all children with special educational needs and disability, the most common difficulty is moderate learning difficulties. Among children with Statements or Education, Health and Care Plans, the most common difficulty is autism.

• Special educational needs and disabilities are far more common in boys than girls. 16% of boys are recognised as having some form of special educational needs, compared to 9% of girls.

• Autism, severe learning difficulties, sensory impairments and profound & multiple learning difficulties are most likely to be supported by Statement or Education Health and Care Plan. Other special educational needs and disabilities are more likely to be supported at SEN Support.

• The biggest drop in number of children ‘diagnosed’ with special educational needs and disabilities is at age 12. This figure dropped by 4.1 percentage points. This is compared to the 2.5 percentage point drop nationally. As has been pointed out elsewhere, this is the age at which children move to secondary school. It is also the age where many children will have moved from a Statement to an Education, Health and Care Plan.

What does this all mean?

Many special educational needs and disability commentators across social media have reacted to these figures.

There is some concern that these figures may well mean that the definition of special educational needs and disability is being altered. Others have indicated that a proportion of those removed from special educational needs provision may now simply be receiving appropriately targeted teaching.

The big issue is that experts are divided on the cause of the drop. Such a dramatic change without a clear reasoning is concerning.

It is hard to tally the drop in the number of children with special educational needs with the projected increase in special schools over the next five years.

It would seem that following the Ofsted report, and the Children and Families Act taking force, significant disruption has taken place. It seems likely that these two factors have had a significant impact.

The Children and Families Act makes clear that the definition of special educational needs has not changed. The DfE have made clear that they expect that children will not ‘lose’ provision because of the changes. It seems likely, however, that that is exactly what is happening.